By Moses Leos III.
State Highway 45 Southwest (SH 45SW), which would connect FM 1626 near Bliss Spillar Road to Loop 1 (MoPac), is supposed to alleviate traffic woes that have plagued many Central Texans’ commutes.
But a recent report by the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) says SH 45SW could only save commuters two to three minutes off their drive – a “moderate” improvement from current travel times between southern Travis and northern Hays counties.
On Dec. 9, CAMPO and the Network Modeling Center (NMC) at the University of Texas at Austin released their dynamic traffic study regarding SH 45SW at the CAMPO Transportation Policy Board meeting in Austin.
It was the culmination of two years of research, during which they studied five different scenarios for SH 45SW and its impact on IH-35, FM 1826 to Nutty Brown Road, and south FM 967, along with several roads in Austin. They ranged from the current status quo to two and four lane toll or no-toll roadways.
The 3.6-mile connector has been in the works more than two decades. However, numerous delays, ranging from a lack of funding to environmental concerns, repeatedly stalled the project.
Cost has been a major factor. In November, the Hays Free Press reported the estimated cost for an SH 45SW toll road at between $60 and $100 million, according to Hays County Pct. 2 Commissioner Mark Jones. Hays County would ante up $5 million.
The NMC’s study, modeled off of 2010 census figures, looked at how the road would function in the year 2025. By that year, the NMC predicts Hays County’s population to grow 75 percent from 2010 figures.
The study measured traffic flow from IH-35 to reach MoPac, Loop 360 and US 290 (Oak Hill), both north- and southbound directions. According to the study, IH-35 is the primary way Hays and Travis County commuters accessed those areas.
The study did not look at traffic flow on Brodie Lane and how SH 45 SW could change traffic flow on that two-lane road used by commuters.
The NMC looked at how SH 45 SW would function if built, and estimated how it would affect other corridors. Under all scenarios, they measured and modeled between “peak period” hours of 6 to 9 a.m.
However, according to the study, commuters would save only an average of two to three minutes if SH 45SW were built. This was in contrast to the “no-build” scenario, where current roads would be upgraded.
Jennifer Duthie, director of the NMC, said the two to three minute estimation is an assessment of several start and end points.
| How will SH 45 affect local roadways? |
| Increases in VMT (amount of traffic) across all scenarios |
The data shows vehicle flow on SH 45SW, if built, would increase, particularly with a toll lane.
Most experts rationalize that SH 45SW would provide easier access to MoPac than current routes.
“IH-35 is already congested, as is MoPac,” Duthie said. “This will allow a subset of people to bypass [those areas].”
However, the road will not speed travel times on several major thoroughfares, including IH-35 to MoPac via Slaughter Lane.
According to the study’s model calibration – which measured and modeled times between 7 and 9 a.m. – that route took a little under 11 minutes to complete in 2010. By 2025, SH 45 SW would shave less than a second off that commute.
That could be due to the effect of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) on several arterial roadways surrounding the proposed project.
VMT is the total amount of traffic on a corridor. The study states VMT by 2025 is projected to increase in the areas surrounding SH 45 due to growth.
According to the model, FM 1626 south of SH 45 SW would see a 36 percent increase in traffic going north, and 28 percent south.
RM 1826 would see a decrease in traffic of 30 percent heading north toward SH 45W.
However, the data show that southbound traffic from U.S. 290 in Austin to Nutty Brown Road would see a 55 percent increase, primarily because of people who live on the western side of Hays County.
NMC also modeled possible peak hour travel times for all toll and no toll scenarios on SH 45 SW.
Those figures take into account any road variances at Bliss Spillar going west. The lack of a toll option would constitute an intersection to be built. According to the report, timing of traffic signals could increase traffic times.
The study concluded the new highway would improve travel for the northern part of Hays County, and provide easier access to MoPac. However, while it would alleviate some roadway congestion, the study found the road would not offer “significant improvements in travel time.”
Regardless, Jones feels it high time for the road to take shape.
He said the two to three minute decrease estimate was “very conservative,” referencing his own travels from 1626 to MoPac, and the current congestion problems.
“I do think [SH 45SW] needs to be built. I don’t need a report to tell me that,” Jones said. “This will help immensely … the road is needed to improve mobility.”
