By Amira Van Leeuwen
HAYS COUNTY — Last Monday, the Hays CISD Board of Trustees received a presentation from Population and Survey Analysts (PASA), giving an overview of the district’s demographic and student population for fall 2022.
According to its website, PASA is a “demographic consulting firm that partners with Texas school districts in planning for long-range utilization of schools by projecting future student enrollment.”
PASA previously worked with Hays CISD in the early 2000s, and the board approved PASA to provide the demographic report and planning services on Aug. 28, 2022.
The study will be used to track student enrollment for capital improvement, grade level projections and staffing.
According to the study, the district should anticipate nearly 5,200 additional students within a 10-year period.
“I think what that shows is it validated our planning for Johnson High School and it validated our planning for the timing of high school four but the data suggest that we might need to look at the work at Hays and Lehman a few years earlier than we had previously thought,” said Max Cleaver, Hays CISD’s chief operations officer.
With the study’s projected geocodes and transfers, elementary, middle and high schools are expected to grow exponentially but the study considers utilization to propose new school placements. Utilization is a planning tool that factors in how many people can fit into a building comfortably, without being overcrowded.
For example, in 2027, Hemphill elementary’s utilization will be at 207% and in 2032, the school’s utilization will be at 340% if the district does not add any other elementary schools. But the PASA study suggests that if the district did add another elementary school in 2024, near Negley for example, it would help offset Hemphill’s exploding student population.
Factors considered in the report’s student projections include new housing construction, changes in birth rates, incoming kindergarten class sizes, aging of the existent student population, new charter schools, pandemic-related loss and the regeneration of existing neighborhoods.
Charter schools are directly competing with HCISD in terms of student enrollment, which impacts the district’s funding. HCISD school enrollment only increased by 900 students instead of the likely increase of 1,500-1,700 since charter schools like Valor School and Doral Academy opened.
“Let’s just say, when we staff for teachers, we divide by 22 and that’s how many teachers we might get in the section. Well, if one or two of those students decide to go to the charter school, we’ve still got those 17 or 18 students. We don’t just get rid of a teacher, we don’t get to turn off the lights, we still got to keep the lights on, we still have to have that teacher there,” Cleaver said. “Incrementally, we lose that funding and so that’s why it’s kind of devastating to us.”
PASA predicts that 70% of total new housing projections over the next 10 years will be single family units in 132 active, planned or potential developments, with Sunfield, Waterstone and Prairie Lakes being the largest drivers of new occupancies. Multi-family occupancies are estimated to account for 26% of the total.
If you are interested in reviewing the full report, go to "> www.pasatx.com/recent-reports/.
The next school board meeting will be held in the Kunkel Room at the Historic Buda Upper Campus, at 300 San Marcos St., on Jan. 17 at 5:30 p.m.
