by JENNIFER BIUNDO
In the last decade, Texas House District 45 has packed on some weight. In the coming months, state lawmakers will put it on a diet.
Every 10 years – and sometimes more frequently – the state legislature wages fierce internal battles over the issue of redistricting, based on the latest numbers from the decennial census. The majority party typically tries to carve out a map that will ensure a safe reelection bid for as many members as possible, within the confines of state law. Similar fights apportion residents into districts for the U.S. Congress, State Senate, State Board of Education and county precincts.
This year, the redistricting committee of the House of Representatives will shoot for districts of 167,637 residents, a figure derived by dividing the total Texas population by the 150 House legislators.
Hays County’s population swelled dramatically in the last decade, from about 100,000 to more than 157,000. Based on 2010 census data, HD 45, comprised of Hays, Caldwell and Blanco counties, has grown to reach 205,670 constituents, nearly 23 percent over the target size. Inevitably, HD 45 will lose at least one of its three counties.
Eliminating the 38,066 residents of Caldwell County, the combined populations of Hays and Blanco counties come in at 167,604, just 33 residents shy of the ideal figure. In fact, a recent report by the House Committee on Redistricting pointed to the combination of Hays and Blanco counties as an example of a perfectly-sized district, coming within 99.98 percent of the target.
Because of that near-perfect match, it’s unlikely that Hays County will join with an awkward sliver of another county in the final incarnation of the new HD 45. All of the other adjoining counties, such as Comal to the south, have populations much too large to allow them to join Hays in HD 45.
However, Hays County alone, the report noted, could even qualify as its own district, as its population lays within ten percent of the target. For now, the question is whether HD 45 will lose just Caldwell County, or Blanco as well.
For political candidates hoping to earn the votes of the newly-formed HD 45, that could mean less solid red and more purple.
Hays County swung hard to the right last November, with voters embracing the GOP in nearly unprecedented proportions. Not a single contested partisan race, from governor all the way down the ballot to precinct constable, went to a Democratic candidate. The only Democrats to survive the red tidal wave of 2010 were those like District Attorney Sherri Tibbe, who were lucky enough to avoid drawing a GOP challenger.
However, Hays County has historically voted more as a swing district, electing Democrats for county-wide positions like county judge and house representative.
Meanwhile, both Caldwell and Blanco counties reliably swing to the right in elections. Pulling a block of 38,000 or even 49,000 largely GOP voters out of District 45 could spell trouble for freshman representative Jason Isaac, who won the seat last November after a hard-fought battle with four-term incumbent representative Patrick Rose.
The staunchly conservative Blanco County could smell like fruit ripe for the picking to legislators hoping to create more safe GOP districts.
Republicans took a supermajority of 101 out of 150 members in the recent election. Upcoming redistricting battles will likely feature many of those lawmakers trying to carve out safely conservative seats for their next election bid. The most well-established and long-term incumbents will likely be best-poised to add Republicans to their base.
“Even in the state of Texas, there are not enough Republicans to go around for all of those 101 representatives to have safe reelection districts,” said Sherri Greenberg, a former state legislator and director of the Center for Politics and Governance.
“Typically, as the saying goes, last in, first out. Those with more seniority typically get greater consideration.”
But Hays County GOP Party Chair Bud Wymore said he was confident that Republicans could still hold on to a House district comprised of Hays County alone.
“I think we have good candidates who have done a real good job of reaching out and forming relationships across the county and across the district,” Wymore said. “Regardless of how the boundaries are drawn, I think Republicans are going to do just fine.”
